Oscar Picks

Here are my thoughts on tonight's Oscars. It's a real pleasure remembering such an outstanding year for cinematic achievement.

Best Picture: "No Country for Old Men" will take it. It has so many other nominations, and the Coens are so talented and respected, that it's sure to take the top prize. But don't be so sure about all those other nominations. My personal favorite in the group is "There Will Be Blood."

Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis by universal acclaim, including mine, for his towering portrayal of oilman Daniel Plainview in "There Will Be Blood."

Actress: I think the Academy will by-pass sentimental favorite Julie Christie in favor of Marion Cotillard. Oscar loves transformative biographical roles - think "Ray," "Capote," "The Queen" - and Cotillard produced the most stunning and detailed portrait of Edith Piaf imaginable. Christie was very, very good in "Away From Her," but the movie didn't find an audience. Against Cotillard is the fact that "La Vie en Rose" is in French, but for a chanteuse that's less of a handicap.

Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, also by universal acclaim for the personification of evil in "No Country for Old Men," although the voters just might make up for not picking Julie Christie by rewarding sentimental favorite Hal Holbrook for his touching portrayal of the old man in "Into the Wild."

Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett for her gender-bending role as Bob Dylan in "I'm Not There." It's hard to imagine any other actress pulling off the role, and there is precedent for an Oscar win for a woman playing a man: Linda Hunt in "The Year of Living Dangerously" (1982). My personal favorite is Amy Ryan for her fearless performance as the neglectful mother in "Gone Baby Gone."

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson for "There Will Be Blood." Anderson pulled everything together into a coherent whole in this picture of American greed and false religion, and got top-notch performances from not only Daniel Day-Lewis and Paul Dano, but everyone else.

Documentary Feature: "No End in Sight," an examination of Iraq War unpreparedness in this political year.

Animated Feature: My personal favorite is "Persepolis" because it is a real story about real people. I feel I know Marjane Satrapi and understand more about Iran than I ever did before after seeing this autobiographical movie. However, it is in French, and "Ratatouille" has so many wonderful qualities, and employed an army of Americans in the making, that the cooking rat will get the Oscar.

Cinematography: "Atonement" should get this one. From the wonderful interiors to that amazing tracking shot, it's all there, and the Old Hollywood traditionalists can all get behind this one.

Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody for her first movie, "Juno," because her story is as interesting and quirky as Juno's.

Adapted Screenplay: OK, the Coens will get this one, too. The nominees are all of the very highest quality. It's a shame to pick just one, but I think the brothers will win in a crowded field.

Visual Effects: "Transformers" for my money.

Animated Short Film: "Peter & the Wolf" should win for it's no words, stop action take on Prokofiev's beloved work.

Live Action Short Film: "Tanghi Argentini" is a real gem and should win.

Art Direction: "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" will win because of it's all-encompassing vision.

Costume Design: It has to be "Across the Universe" for sustained originality that supports the story with a distinctly 60's flavor.

Film Editing: I will go against the conventional wisdom, and the Coens, by saying that "The Bourne Ultimatum" should and will win. It's editing was the real star and propelled the movie at break-neck speed from beginning to end.

Sound Mixing: "No Country for Old Men" for it's restraint.

Sound Editing: "No Country for Old Men" again.

Original Score: It may seem gimmicky, but I loved Dario Marianelli's syncopated typewriter in "Atonement," and I think it will win.

Original Song: I hope that "Once" will get some recognition, and "Falling Slowly" was a standout in one of the best, and most unassuming, musicals of all time. And with three nominees from "Enchanted" to split the vote, it could well win.

Makeup: Marion Cotillard had lots of expert help depicting the stages of Piaf's life, and Oscar will recognize that.